Marco Rubio’s first visit as Secretary of State was to Central America, a region that the Trump administration has promised to prioritize—especially given its primary concern regarding the isthmus: migration to the United States. It’s no coincidence that the agreements the Cuban-American official signed with the governments of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Costa Rica reinforced Washington’s rapidly accelerating deportation policies.
Rubio paraded through Central America, making it clear that Trump’s allies would be rewarded while those who weren’t—such as Nicaragua and Honduras, which he skipped—would feel the weight of the United States’ heavy hand. Particularly in the case of Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo’s dictatorship, which Rubio threatened to remove from the DR-CAFTA free trade agreement. As for Xiomara Castro’s government, Trump’s administration has yet to clarify its stance. In Panama—a country often seen as separate from Central America—Rubio’s visit was marked by tension, as Trump seeks to regain control over the Panama Canal.
“The Secretary of State’s visit fulfilled its purpose of strengthening deportation policies,” analyzes Manuel Orozco, a researcher at the Washington-based Inter-American Dialogue. “Every country Rubio visited agreed to accept deported migrants, manage a ‘safe third country’ policy, and receive individuals from other nationalities. However, discussions also included security, trade, and cooperation matters.”
According to Orozco, “the overall outlook remains uncertain, as Trump’s new doctrine is not clear, yet delivers unsettling blows in each country when immediate action is taken.” He adds, “What is certain is that a new relationship dynamic has emerged, and migration is only one aspect of it. Other issues, such as regional alliances against drug trafficking and dictatorships—particularly Nicaragua—are also in play.”
Contracorriente and Divergentes consulted regional experts and analysts to delve into the new Central American landscape shaped by Rubio’s visit. This could signal a shift in the region’s geopolitical strategy or merely reflect Washington’s new approach of treating each country as an individual client.
“The Lackey Does Exactly What the King Wants”
Rubio’s tour came just twelve days after Donald Trump’s inauguration speech, in which the former president explicitly addressed three issues directly relevant to the region: the Panama Canal, transnational crime, and irregular migration. As expected, Trump took an aggressive stance on these topics, but Rubio arrived in the region to negotiate agreements with its governments.
“The lackey does exactly what the king wants, and that’s precisely what Marco Rubio did,” said John Feeley, former U.S. ambassador to Panama. He pointed out that Rubio’s visit reflects Trump’s transactional model for dealing with the region and Washington’s new policy approach.
“Trump wanted something from each country, but the specifics were left intentionally vague… Anyone who thinks Trump studies Excel spreadsheets or background notes is mistaken: he measures success by headlines and social media engagement,” the former diplomat added.
Feeley asserted that Rubio aimed to strengthen cooperation with El Salvador and Guatemala, particularly on deportations—something he achieved, at least in terms of promises. In Guatemala, for example, an agreement was reached to increase deportation flights by 40%. Meanwhile, in El Salvador, Bukele pledged to receive deportees from other countries and, if necessary, imprison them in exchange for rental payments for his mega-prison.
“Rubio played the role of a diligent staffer, cleaning up the media mess Trump had created regarding Panama and returning with agreements and promises,” Feeley noted. He added that while some may not see these as concrete results, the photos and tweets appear to be enough for Trump—for now.
What is clear is that this situation highlights which governments are considered allies and which, like Xiomara Castro’s administration in Honduras and the Ortega-Murillo regime in Nicaragua, are not. In today’s U.S. politics—where decisions often hinge more on the president’s whims and personal opinions than on structured processes—stances can shift overnight, Feeley explained.
The End of the “Northern Triangle” Concept?
On January 26, 2025, at 8:00 AM, Colombian President Gustavo Petro posted on X that he would not accept the military planes Donald Trump had sent carrying deported migrants, citing inhumane conditions. This provoked Trump’s fury, leading him to threaten a 25% tariff hike on Colombian products.
Eager to respond quickly on X, Petro didn’t issue a threat—he outright ordered increased tariffs on U.S. imports the same day. Throughout the day, Petro posted dozens of messages about the diplomatic standoff, which left many deported migrants in limbo. By 4:37 PM, Honduran President Xiomara Castro, pro tempore leader of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC), called for an emergency meeting at Petro’s request to discuss the situation.
However, the meeting was canceled the next day after Petro and Trump resolved the issue, and other CELAC members announced that Castro had not consulted them beforehand.
Castro’s stance on this issue, her addition to the deportation flight narrative, and her previous threat to cancel the U.S. military base agreement in Honduras if Trump initiated mass deportations were signals of what followed: Honduras’ absence from Rubio’s regional agenda.
“In the world I used to work in, Honduras was an important U.S. ally—not just for migration but due to Cold War-era ties, anti-drug efforts, and historical cooperation,” Feeley explained. “But in Trump’s world, a single tweet from your president puts you in the same category as Nicaragua. Trump sees the world in binary: you’re either with us or against us. Any dissent means you’re against us. That’s how short-sighted and simplistic Trump’s foreign policy is.”
Castro and her party have maintained an anti-imperialist stance aligned with 21st-century socialism. Her government is the only one in the region that openly supports the Ortega-Murillo dictatorship. Recently, after some of its members were accused of links to organized crime, it scrapped the extradition treaty with the U.S.—a move set to take effect at the end of February, effectively ending anti-narcotics cooperation between the two countries.
Although, in practice, Castro’s administration has been more submissive on migration—accepting military planes and deportees without resistance—the extradition treaty cancellation, its support for Nicaragua, and new agreements with China mark a turning point for the so-called “Northern Triangle of Central America.” This U.S.-crafted strategy had shaped the region’s geopolitical dynamics for years.
“There’s a kind of client-patron relationship now,” Feeley commented regarding Central American nations. “It’s no longer part of a coherent strategy, as it once was.”
Rubio Spoke About Democracy in Guatemala
Rubio’s visit to Guatemala was highly anticipated by President Bernardo Arévalo’s government, as well as by the anti-democratic actors previously criticized by the Biden administration, such as Attorney General Consuelo Porras, who has been sanctioned by the United States, and a long list of judges, prosecutors, legislators, and some businesspeople. Those close to Porras hoped to gain acceptance within the MAGA (Make America Great Again) movement and that Rubio’s meeting with the government would not be productive, perhaps even placing Porras on Rubio’s agenda.
After the visit by the Secretary of State, President Arévalo’s most outstanding talent became evident: his diplomatic skills. One of the key points Rubio made clear was that the United States cannot maintain strong political or economic relations with a country where a coup d’état could take place. This warning was forceful and resonated in the darkest corridors of what is known in the country as “the coup plot of the corrupt.”
Rubio held three key meetings in Guatemala: one bilateral meeting with the president, another with a high-level team led by the vice president, and a third with the Minister of the Interior, Francisco Jiménez, to strengthen cooperation in the fight against organized crime.
Guatemala committed to receiving deportation flights from the United States, which will increase by 40%, and to launching the “Plan Retorno al Hogar” program for the dignified reintegration of returning migrants with opportunities.
Additionally, a new Border Task Force was created with the police and the army to monitor over 300 kilometers of the border with Honduras and El Salvador to curb transnational crime. This could create tensions with Honduras, as it is a key transit route for migrants heading north. In exchange, the Guatemalan government requested that the United States reinstate key programs to combat human and drug trafficking.
Another agreement reached in Guatemala was the signing of a partnership for the development of priority infrastructure, including the expansion of two ports, new highways, railways, and a metro system in Guatemala City. This collaboration with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is strategic for both the Arévalo administration, which has been unable to deliver infrastructure projects due to rampant corruption in the public works sector, and for the United States, which sees this as an opportunity to strengthen its strategic control in northern Central America.
Former U.S. Ambassador to Guatemala, Stephen McFarland, stated that the visit demonstrated that “a strong and effective bilateral relationship is crucial for the Arévalo administration, considering it has adversaries who seek to destabilize it before an independent attorney general is elected in 2026.”
“It is critical for the Guatemalan government to properly implement agreements on migration and the acceptance of deportees, increase cooperation against cartels (which the U.S. now considers terrorist organizations), and collaborate with the Trump administration on China-related matters. Of course, the investment and infrastructure agreements are of great interest to Guatemala. This is a very promising topic for the country. Any successful anti-corruption effort will require a much more effective Guatemalan-led anti-corruption campaign,” McFarland added.
Guatemala remains the only country in Central America that continues to recognize Taiwan, maintains a pro-Israel stance, and currently has a strong relationship with the United States.
Rubio’s Achievements in Panama
During his second inaugural speech, Trump mentioned Panama, stating that he had terminated the agreement with the United States on the use of the canal and intended to reclaim it. This made Rubio’s visit iconic in terms of how this administration plans to negotiate with other nations. Trump claimed that China controls the canal, that the U.S. pays exorbitant tolls for its ships, and that this situation negatively affects Americans. Rubio’s accomplishments in Panama remain unclear, as despite announcing that Panama had agreed to eliminate tolls for U.S. vessels, the Panama Canal Authority denied this claim.
Former Ambassador Feeley explained that the United States does not have a commercial shipping fleet because it stopped subsidizing the maritime industry in the 1960s. Most ships passing through Panama belong to the military, which has paid only $25 million in tolls over 25 years—an insignificant sum compared to the U.S. defense budget.
“This is purely symbolic. The problem for Panamanians is that, according to their Constitution and the canal’s organic law, they cannot offer free transit,” said the former ambassador.
Another discussion point in Panama was the alleged Chinese control over the canal, which Panamanian authorities have denied. Feeley clarified, “The mere fact that Hutchison Ports, a Hong Kong-based company, operates two of the five ports does not mean it can block or sabotage the canal. I somewhat agree with Trump on the issue of recognizing Beijing over Taiwan. The reason is simple: we know how the Chinese operate in their commercial dealings. They use strategic influence, espionage, bribery, and create poor working conditions in host countries. These are legitimate concerns I share, but the way Trump has raised this issue is problematic. In his January 20 speech, Trump mentioned China only in the context of Panama, not in relation to spying in U.S. universities or intellectual property theft. The focus was solely on Panama and Chinese control of the canal, which is a lie.”
Feeley noted that even before Trump raised this issue, the Panamanian government had already begun investigating Hutchison Ports’ contract. However, it only became public knowledge after Rubio’s visit that Panama had initiated an audit of the company, a subsidiary of CK Hutchison Holdings, which operates 53 ports in 24 countries, including the U.K., Germany, and Hong Kong. The company was granted concessions to operate in the Panama Canal in 1997, which were renewed in 2021 amid long-standing public doubts.
Nicaragua: “Enemy of Humanity”
After Trump’s special envoy for Latin America, Mauricio Claver-Carone, stated that Washington has “no interest” in Nicaragua as a trade partner and is considering removing it from the DR-CAFTA agreement, Rubio softened the message during his visit to Costa Rica.
“Regarding CAFTA, the (Trump) administration has not yet determined Nicaragua’s role in an agreement originally intended to reward democracy. Nicaragua is not a democracy. It does not function as one. However, the implications of removing a country from the agreement must be carefully analyzed, as it could also impact neighboring countries,” Rubio stated when questioned by Nicaraguan journalists.
“This is a serious matter, but as of now, no official position has been established. Today marks just two weeks in my role, and this issue will take longer to resolve,” he added.
Nonetheless, Rubio emphasized that the Trump administration opposes the regimes of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, Miguel Díaz-Canel in Cuba, and Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo in Nicaragua.
“In my opinion,” Rubio stressed, “these three regimes are enemies of humanity. They have created a migration crisis. If not for these regimes, there would be no migration crisis in the hemisphere. These countries’ systems do not work. Nicaragua has become a family dynasty with a co-presidency, suppressing threats to its power, including the Catholic Church. We have seen thousands of Nicaraguans fleeing to Costa Rica, just as Venezuelans and Cubans have fled their countries.”
According to analyst Manuel Orozco, being labeled “enemies of humanity” places Ortega and Murillo in a defendant’s seat awaiting trial. Orozco believes the U.S. will manage deportations separately from the regime’s behavior but will remain vigilant. He also predicts that Nicaragua will no longer be able to act as both a rogue state and a trade partner.
“However, they will remain vigilant against any harm that may come to those individuals. Secondly, for the United States, Nicaragua cannot continue being both a commercial partner and a rogue state at the same time, and Mr. Ortega will have to show, in the short term, what he really is,” Orozco elaborated. “This is not just a matter of trade relations but of other violations, such as Nicaragua’s relationship with China to invest and undermine the local geopolitical environment, as well as remittance transfers, given that 80% of them come from the United States.”
Amid this situation, there is a sanctions law imposed by the Sandinista regime that has banks under blackmail, threatened with prosecution, and at risk of having their correspondent banking relationships with American banks severed. “Additionally, the dictatorship has outstanding debts with the United States regarding the expulsion of Nicaraguans, the use of the country as a migratory corridor, and property confiscations,” Orozco pointed out. “At this moment, Ortega and Murillo know that the question is not if something will happen, but when, and that they hold the key to resolving a conflict that is not in their favor.”
On the other hand, Rubio praised Costa Rica, stating that there are more North Americans living in Costa Rica than the other way around. President Chaves welcomed the Secretary of State’s compliments.
“There is undoubtedly a transformation in U.S. relations with the world, but it is particularly noticeable in Latin America. And so, Costa Rica is perfectly positioned to continue being the United States’ strategic partner par excellence,” Chaves said ahead of Rubio’s visit.
The Chaves administration maintained a close relationship with the U.S. government under Democrat Joe Biden (2021–2025), particularly in matters related to drug trafficking and cybersecurity.
Chaves has had tensions with the Chinese embassy due to his government’s blockade of Chinese telecommunications equipment providers from participating in public bids for 5G technology, citing cybersecurity and data protection risks.